Here we go: The final Locked On Jaguars 2019 NFL Draft scouting report. I know, I didn’t go in-depth on any defensive prospects with these, as I am a strong believer that the Jaguars need to select a blue-chip offensive player at seventh overall. I’ve watched multiple defensive players who will be available at the pick, but my time felt best-served studying the prospects who could drastically improve Jacksonville’s offense heading into a crucial 2019 season.
Alabama offensive lineman Jonah Williams is at the top of that list of prospects.
Arm length be damned.
The three year, 44-game starter for the Alabama Crimson Tide started all 15 games at right tackle as a true freshman and was named to the 2nd team All-SEC before moving to left tackle in 2017 to replace now-Jaguars left tackle Cam Robinson. Since, Williams has earned back-to-back 1st team All-SEC and was named to the 2018 All-American team. His résumé, paired with his clear versatility and availability, should immediately jump off the page when researching Williams. It did for the Jaguars at least, because the team hosted him for a top-30 visit.
However, Williams has fallen victim to the overly lengthy draft process, where folks tend to overthink things. Williams’ Combine results created concerns with his game in the eyes of analysts everywhere, with short arms and average athleticism that has led many to believe he’s better suited as a guard in the NFL.
But Jonah Williams is a perfect example of why tape matters more than testing numbers. Yes, he has really short arms compared to the average NFL tackle. But if you based your opinion of him solely off of his arm length and not off of his tape, you wouldn’t understand that he consistently finds ways to elevate his game beyond that natural limitation.
Natural length limitations… and how he beats them
There are times on film where Williams will struggle against length edge rushers in one-on-one pass protection. When you consider his arm length ranks in the 26th percentile among NFL tackles, that’d to be expected from time to time.
There are going to be times where Williams loses battles vs. length. It’s just going to happen with his build. Defensive end Montez Sweat, who’s been projected as a top 10 pick before news broke of his enlarged heart, is as lengthy a pass rusher as they come. At 6-5 3/4″ (88th percentile among NFL DEs) with 35 3/4″ arms (97th %tile), Sweat utilizes length in order to win pass rush matchups, and tackles with 26th percentile arms like Jonah Williams typically won’t stand a chance when they get locked out.
That is, unless you’re Jonah Williams:
One of the most impressive aspects of Williams’ game is his mental processing. Off the field, Williams studies his opponents like no other, creating spreadsheets of opposing defensive ends pass rushing moves and charting their impacts, in order to plan his approach for an upcoming game. And you can see that processing on film, and it does him wonders despite natural limitations with length. Above, Williams is paired with Sweat again, and Sweat attempts to lockout and pull again, much like the previous rep which was two quarters before.
Williams understands the same move is coming through the initial contact, and reacts swiftly. He gets his arms over Sweat’s double arm-bars to limit a full extension and obtain leverage through the move, then utilizes his strength to eliminate the arm bars and win the rep.
This is smart football. And this mental preparation paired with refined technique is what separates Williams from the natural length limitations as a pass protector.
Same story here vs. Clemson in the National Championship. On the first play of the game, vs. projected top-20 pick defensive end Clelin Ferrell who stands at 6-4 3/8″ (69th %tile) with 34 1/8th” arms (72nd %tile), Ferrell gets early leverage and locks out with a double arm-bar and pulls Williams through before he can recover. But much like against Sweat, Williams notes this for future reference…
Only a couple of plays later, Williams’ initial punch hits before Ferrell can extend, and Williams’ hand placement prevents Ferrell from getting any extension. Williams follows the early leverage gain with excellent, chopping footwork to mirror Ferrell’s direction and eliminate him from creating pressure.
Williams’ masterful hand technique identifies Ferrell’s inside hand reach to begin an arm-bar and knocks it away, which derails Ferrell’s initial pass rush plan of a long arm and rip move. With that initial leverage and understanding of Ferrell’s attack, Williams can get his outside arm through Ferrell’s chest to minimize the impact of Ferrell’s inside rip move.
Again… Ferrell attempts the same move as he did above, and while Williams doesn’t necessarily win this rep cleanly, he still comes out on top by eliminating Ferrell from disrupting this pass. Williams’ inside hand knocks away the inside arm bar, and Williams gets through the inside rip move to force Ferrell outside. Getting popped up early turns this into a more powerful rush for Ferrell, and makes the end result less clean of a win for Williams, but regardless: A win is a win.
So yes, Williams’ length can work against him sometimes. Much like how every offensive lineman has a natural limitation work against them. It’s about how a player rises above those limitations to win that’s important, and Jonah Williams is as polished as they come at overcoming his obstacles.
Mean streak blocking
Jonah Williams plays football with a violent attitude. He finds pleasure in knocking defenders off of their feet and into the dirt.
Much like my report on Iowa tight end T.J. Hockenson, I can just put a running thread of clips of Williams’ mean streak and they’ll explain themselves. He makes blocking fun to watch.
(This is Williams totally stone-walling defensive tackle Christian Wilkins, another projected first round pick… by the way.)
Jonah Williams’ hand usage is incredibly poised, and is consistently on display in order to win blocks. He moves them quickly and in sync with what he sees from the defensive ends hand and arm movement, and he punches with a ton of violence in order to kill any pass rush plan coming his way.
Same story, different play. And Williams getting his hands to your chest will stall out defenders more often than not. He’s just so violent.
Williams cuts across Ferrell’s face swiftly and gets his hands to Ferrell’s shoulder quickly in order to keep Ferrell’s arms contained. The short screen would have easily been batted away by Ferrell without an adequate block, but Williams’ quick movement and technique allows this screen play to develop.
Fit with Jacksonville
While Jonah Williams spent the past two seasons at left tackle for Alabama, and despite many analysts projecting him as an interior player at the NFL level, I think Williams would fill in perfectly at right tackle for the Jaguars and reunite with Cam Robinson as bookends for Jacksonville’s offensive line. This would make Will Richardson the team’s swing tackle, and a former fourth round pick that the team considered a “value pick” serving as the swing tackle is excellent depth value.
And then, considering Williams could fit just about anywhere on the offensive line, he becomes an immediate chess-piece if any injuries occur. If Cam Robinson goes down, Williams could slide to left tackle with experience and have Richardson handle RT. If Andrew Norwell or A.J. Cann go down at either guard spot, Williams has the size and technique down to move inside and play well there, with Robinson and Richardson playing outside. You can plug-and-play Williams pretty much anywhere.
And then… there’s a legitimate connection between the Jaguars and Jonah Williams that must be noted. Thanks to Filip Prus of Big Cat Country and soon-to-be co-host of Locked On Jaguars for sending this info my way.
Jaguars head coach Doug Marrone has repeatedly stated the value of references throughout the 2019 offseason and how it has impacted decision making. He said it about the hiring of offensive coordinator John DeFilippo:
My process has always been to go with people I’ve coached with, people that I’ve coached with or who have coached with the other coaches. It’s very difficult for me to try to hire someone I don’t have any type of relationship with at all – or at least someone I know and trust.
He said it about the signing of quarterback Nick Foles:
“Really, for me, you gotta be able to talk to people you trust. You have to hear that, so you get the truth. And sometimes, that’s the hardest thing—when you’re trying to find out, and going through the process, whether it’s free agents or the college draft, finding someone you can trust that’s gonna tell you exactly what’s going on.”
And… he said it two years ago when the Jaguars drafted left tackle Cam Robinson, noting his relationship with former Alabama offensive line coach Brent Key. Key coached Jonah Williams at Alabama through the 2018 season before taking the Georgia Tech associate head coach and run game coordinator job recently:
Marrone said he was able to get a unique perspective on Robinson because of his relationship with the Alabama coaching staff. From 1997 through 1999, Marrone worked as the offensive-line coach at Georgia Tech, where he coached current Alabama offensive-line coach Brent Key, who played guard for the Yellow Jackets.
“Coach (Nick) Saban was great,” Marrone said during a press conference after the Jaguars picked Robinson. “I’ve known coach Saban for a long period of time. And then actually his position coach is a player that I had coached when I was at Georgia Tech, Brent Key. So obviously I have a lot of insight because of the relationship I had and felt very comfortable with the player.”
And what did Marrone learn about Robinson through this extra access?
“A very tough player,” Marrone said. “That was the one thing when I was talking to coach Key, who I coached, who was a tough football player himself, knows what I’m looking for, knows what I like. Hey, I need to know: Is this kid a tough kid? He said, ‘Absolutely.’ And that really means a lot because of the relationship I had with coach Key.”
If history indicates anything, Doug Marrone values the references he has access too across the NFL, whether it be for coach hirings, free agent signings, or draft prospects. Considering his long, well-documented relationship with Brent Key and the knowledge we have of Key’s impact on the Robinson selection two years ago, it’s tough to assume Marrone won’t utilize Key’s word on Williams, who Jacksonville recently hosted for a top-30 visit.
Oh, and Key is a huge fan of Williams, by the way:
He’s [Williams] a special player, a special person, a special talent. To have somebody that has that much talent, yet be such an intellectual player … he studies the game … Really, just a coach on the field to the point where Sunday and Monday nights he’ll be in my office watching tape until late – 9:30, 10 o’clock – watching the blitzes, watching the pass rush. He gives his initial game plan thoughts. I’ll get a text at 12, 12:30 at night from him, ‘Hey, coach, what about this? What about that? I’m looking at this game, have you seen this?’
Pros and Cons
- Three year starter at LT/RT, earning numerous All-SEC/All-American honors
- Physical, mauling run blocker crossing the line of scrimmage
- Active chopping feet to mirror pass rushers and drive defenders
- Processing/athleticism on combo blocks makes him flexible to play in and out
- Mental game is top notch. Charts pass rush moves in film study. Adjusts incredibly well to length moves with refined technique and understanding pass rush plans
- Hand technique is as polished as it gets. Quick, mean punch to knock hands away through pass rush
- Length. 6-4 1/2 (15th %tile), 33 5/8″ arms (26th)
- Lack of length can prevent gaining initial leverage which makes for tougher recovery
- Weight (302 lbs) could lead to issues vs. power outside
- Athletic testing scores came back average/below average
Jonah Williams is a player with very few negative aspects to his on-field game, but has fallen victim to draft-season nitpicking due to his athletic profile. While his size makes him appealing as guard, I believe he has the technique, mental processing ability, and on-tape athleticism and strength to be a world beater at tackle or anywhere on the offensive line.
If Jacksonville chooses to go offensive line in the first round, Jonah Williams has the résumé to be worth the pick. He’d be an immediate upgrade to the Jaguars offensive line and provide a ton of flexibility for the team’s depth purposes. Doug Marrone’s connection with Williams’ offensive line coach Brent Key only strengthens the idea of Williams ending up in back and teal, and the Jaguars would welcome Williams with open arms to help protect newly-signed QB Nick Foles.
Jaguars 2019 position group breakdown: Running Backs
Similar to their quarterback situation, the Jacksonville Jaguars have attempted to answer some questions in terms of the run game in this year’s offseason. Jacksonville went through a full remodel in an attempt to add veteran presence that can sustain the ground attack if injury strikes the team yet again in 2019.
Two years ago, the Jaguars were a team that led the NFL in rushing at 527 attempts throughout the regular season. Nearly 50 carries ahead of any other team in the league. On those 527 attempted the Jaguars saw heights in production not seen since the Maurice Jones-Drew.
That production staggered in yardage and overall sustainability of the offense with their lackluster quarterback play last season. This was all due to the injuries of star running back Leonard Fournette and the majority of the offensive line. Without Fournette, the Jaguars only accumulated half the yardage in 2018 Fournette produced in 2017 with T.J. Yeldon and Carlos Hyde leading the affair.
Being a strong part of the offensive system, the Jaguars win total saw a sharp decrease and the team swagger that carried them to the 2017 AFC playoffs had vanished.
Jacksonville looked to replenish their running back room and get back to the strong, effective run game they saw in 2017 that made them so successful.
Adding Alfred Blue, Benny Cunningham, Thomas Rawls and more through free agency, as well as, drafting former Temple running back, Ryquell Armstead the Jaguars made a good move in adding reliable to back up Fournette in the backfield.
Projected Running Back Depth Chart:
*italicized indicates starter, underline indicates picked up via draft/free agency
Leonard Fournette, Alfred Blue, Benny Cunningham, Ryquell Armstead.
Leading the pack coming into 2019 is Leonard Fournette. Fournette is a player that has all the major attributes to be a star player in the NFL if he could just stay healthy. Fournette missed eight games last season and seven due to injury which caused the Jaguars offense to stall in his absence.
He is a player that combines strong downhill running with game-breaking speed. Abilities not many can combine nevertheless replace. He is a generational talent who looks to return to his rookie form in 2019.
Fournette looks to be getting back on track this season and “refocused on football.” Him being able to stay on the field will be a huge plus for a Jaguars team that has struggled offensively for many years.
The next two players on the depth chart are veteran backs Alfred Blue and Benny Cunningham.
Blue being a signee from the Houston Texans roster and an experienced back who knows how to get yardage necessary to sustain drives. While receiving very little touches in the Houston offense he played the backup role well and was a reliable source of receiving out of the backfield.
Blue will be used more as a third-down back in the Jaguars offense.
The same goes for Cunningham. Coming over from the Bears, which last season saw two top-caliber running backs in Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen sharing carries, Cunningham got lost in the shuffle. Cunningham is a great receiving threat out of the backfield and can play solid minutes in his role on his new team.
Having two players that can play roles, and play them well is vital for any team in the NFL. Taking fatigue and potential injury into account getting Cunningham and Blue was one of the more important moves the Jaguars made this offseason. The Jaguars acquired two reliable backs for new quarterback Nick Foles to work with on downs where Fournette is not in the game.
Next on the team’s depth chart is the Jaguars 2019 fifth-round pick out of Temple, Ryquell Armstead. In his senior year, Armstead scored 13 touchdowns and averaged nearly 6.5 yards per carry. Armstead’s progression through his college career was a sight to see. After starting his career as a bulkier strong runner, Armstead slimmed down to become a more complete back and utilized his opportunity at Temple to make it to the NFL.
Posting 2,987 yards and 34 touchdowns over his career, Armstead looks to carry on those impressive numbers at the next level. Armstead is a runner with great field vision and patience behind the line of scrimmage. He bursts through the open hole and is willing to lower the shoulder to gain extra yardage. Armstead says that he models his game after former Giants running back Brandon Jacobs.
He describes himself as an angry runner. “I run angry, I run violent. I look for contact— that’s something that makes me unique.” Armstead stated in an interview with CBS sports.
The type of physical running Armstead brings to the table is something the Jaguars have had success within recent memory. That willingness to create contact and run hard for his team to succeed is an attribute any team would love to have with their running back.
A player that very strongly resembles Leonard Fournette in terms of running style was a guy the Jaguars looked at as a potential steal in the fifth round. An aggressive, one-cut runner who can run over opponents or bounce it to the outside and take off down the sideline.
Armstead had the second-fastest time in the 40-yard dash among eligible running backs at the 2019 NFL combine at 4.49 seconds. Being a player with blazing speed mixed with a downhill running style, Armstead could see minutes directly behind Fournette later in the season. Armstead is an intriguing prospect but his development as a pass-catcher out of the backfield will need to improve for him to solidify the playing time this season.
While the Jaguars have many running backs on the roster, all of them cannot stay. Unless there is a huge jump of progression when training camp starts later in the month, Thomas Rawls and Taj McGowan have very little shot of making the team.
After last season, the Jaguars have done whatever it takes to assure they have depth at this position. Being able to provide multiple sources of production is important for any team. By providing this depth, the Jaguars hope it can get the job done and they can return to the success seen in the running game just two seasons ago.
REPORT: Jaguars to sign former WVU WR Marcus Simms
The Jacksonville Jaguars have made a roster move signing former West Virginia WR Marcus Simms according to Tom Pelissero of NFL Network. Simms was slated to participate in the supplemental draft after filing the paperwork on June 20th.
Source: The #Jaguars are signing former West Virginia WR Marcus Simms, pending a physical tomorrow. Had several offers after today's supplemental draft ended. One to watch in camp.
— Tom Pelissero (@TomPelissero) July 10, 2019
Simms will make for interesting competition for the Jaguars as we inch closer to training camp. Simms accumulated 87 receptions for 1457 yards and eight touchdowns in his three-year career at West Virginia. Simms has also made his name known in the return game totaling 992 yards as a kick returner. According to reports, Simms ran the 40-yard dash in 4.4-4.49 seconds, with a vertical jump of 36″, a broad jump of 10-2 and three-cone time of 6.91 seconds. After his physical tomorrow, the Jaguars will have to make a corresponding move.
Simms will look to compete for a bottom-of-the-roster position with players such as Terrelle Pryor and Keelan Cole. If the Jaguars intend on retaining six receivers Simms will have a good shot at making the roster. By all accounts, Simms was a draftable player.
2019 Jacksonville Jaguars Fantasy Football: Nick Foles Preview
Quarterback Nick Foles signed a four-year, $88 million dollar contract with the Jacksonville Jaguars this offseason. Foles is a much-needed upgrade behind center and may be the best signal-caller the franchise has had in the past decade. Jaguars fans have high expectations for how he’ll do on his new team. Here’s what you should expect how he’ll do on your fantasy team.
Poor Fantasy History
Throughout the entirety of Foles’ career, his fantasy football production has been underwhelming. Foles has only finished as a top-25 fantasy quarterback once in his seven years in the league.
Part of the reason Foles never produced solid fantasy numbers due to the fact he has never played a full 16-game season — the most games he’s played is 13 back in 2013 when he was fantasy’s QB9. Foles played more than eight games just one other season. To remove the effect of the number of games played, we can look at fantasy points per game (PPG), but those statistics are also disappointing:
-Foles averaged 20.46 PPG in 2013, his best fantasy season. His second-best fantasy season was last year when he scored 15.00 fantasy PPG, which was tied for 24th — with Eli Manning. His career mark is 13.04 fantasy PPG.
-For comparison, Blake Bortles’ best fantasy season was in 2015, when he finished with 20.25 fantasy PPG. In 2018, he scored 13.31 fantasy PPG, which was 28th. His career mark is 15.88 fantasy PPG.
Bortles has been a viable fantasy option partly because of garbage-time opportunities in his first couple years and increased rushing production in the last couple years, but it’s still a tough look for Foles to have worse career fantasy numbers than Bortles by over two points. Long story short, Foles has frankly been a bad fantasy quarterback throughout his career save for one good season.
Fewer Passing Attempts
Another warning sign for Foles is a likely decrease in passing attempts after playing for the Philadelphia Eagles the past two seasons.
-In five regular-season starts last season, Foles had 39.0 attempts per game and averaged 15.04 fantasy points per game.
-In 12 regular-season starts last season, Bortles had 33.0 attempts per game and averaged 13.32 fantasy points per game.
-Foles and Bortles each averaged 0.35 fantasy points per dropback, per Player Profiler.
Foles finished with more fantasy points per game than Bortles, which was partly due to Foles simply throwing the ball more often. Foles’ higher passing rate can essentially be boiled down to two factors: team defense and rushing rate. Jacksonville’s 8thranked defense last season allowed the Jaguars the freedom to run more often and Philadelphia’s 18thranked defense sometimes forced the Eagles to pass more often (weighted defensive efficiency rankings via Football Outsiders). Additionally, Jacksonville (49%) ran at a higher rate than Philadelphia (43%) in game-script positive situations (rushing rates via Sharp Football Stats). To summarize, due to differences in defensive production and offensive play calling, the Eagles pass a lot more than the Jaguars.
Despite the new additions of Foles and offensive coordinator John DeFilippo, the Jaguars will likely continue to rely on running and defense. As a result of transitioning from Philadelphia to Jacksonville, Foles will almost certainly throw fewer passes, and therefore is unlikely to produce numbers like he did last season- which already weren’t exceptional.
Fewer Red Zone Opportunities
Foles also isn’t likely to have as many opportunities to score in the red zone as he did with the Eagles, which is another fantasy red flag.
-In the past two seasons, 36.1% of Foles’ fantasy points have come from in the red zone, while 32.5% of Bortles’ fantasy points have come from in the red zone, per fantasy data.
-In the past two seasons, the Eagles passed on 53% of red-zone plays, while the Jaguars passed on 47% of red-zone plays. The Eagles passed on 57% of red-zone plays in games Foles started, and the Jaguars passed on 42% of red-zone plays in games Leonard Fournette started.
-In the past two seasons, the Eagles averaged 3.4 red zone attempts per game, while the Jaguars averaged 2.6 red zone attempts per game, per Team Rankings.
Based on the 2017-18 seasons, Foles may not reach the red zone as much nor pass in the red zone as much as he was accustomed to in Philadelphia.
Offensive Talent Downgrade
One of the more talked about storylines regarding Foles’ signing with the Jaguars is his prior supporting cast in Philadelphia compared to his current one in Jacksonville. Foles must transition from a receiving core of Zach Ertz, Alshon Jeffery, and Nelson Agholor to Dede Westbrook, Marquise Lee, and rookie tight end Josh Oliver. The difference in each group’s production is obvious:
-Ertz, Jeffery, Agholor, and Golden Tate (who played for Philadelphia in the second half of last season) all surpassed 100 fantasy points and 60 receptions last season. They have four combined career Pro-Bowl appearances.
-Westbrook was the only Jacksonville receiver to surpass 100 fantasy points and 60 receptions last season. In fact, he is the only player on the current roster who caught over 40 passes last season. The Jaguars receivers have zero combined career Pro-Bowl appearances.
The argument that Westbrook is as good as Agholor is feasible, but Agholor was Philadelphia’s third receiving option at best last season, and Jacksonville has no weapons who can come close to the skillset or production of Ertz and Jeffery. Additionally, Foles targeted Ertz a lot and he generated impressive numbers – which creates a lot of buzz for the imminent Foles-Oliver connection – but Ertz’s success was likely due more to his own talent than Foles’ supposed rapport with tight ends:
Per Sports Info Solutions, Foles targeted tight ends at the highest rate in the league (35%) last season. However, he posted a worse completion percentage, yards per attempt, touchdown percentage, interception percentage, and quarterback rating when throwing to a tight end than the wide receiver or running back last season. Foles also ranked 42ndamong all quarterbacks (min. 10 attempts) in passer rating when targeting tight ends. Ertz finished top-three in targets, receptions, yards, touchdowns, and total fantasy points among tight ends last season. However, he ranked only 20thin fantasy points per target and 18thin yards per target among tight ends (per Player Profiler), which suggests that his massive target volume was a big benefactor towards his production. That large target volume combined with Ertz’s individual talent masked Foles’ below-average efficiency when targeting tight ends.
Now Foles is in Jacksonville, and his top tight end has yet to play an NFL snap. 2019 third-round pick Josh Oliver has a lot of potential to succeed in John DeFilippo’s tight end-friendly offense, but it is unreasonable to expect him to approach Ertz’s skill level or production in his first season. It should also be noted that rookie tight ends historically don’t have a large impact– in the past 15 years, only two rookie tight ends have surpassed 600 receiving yards, and only two have finished as a top-five fantasy tight end. Consequently, Foles may have even worse ratings when targeting tight ends this year. Foles’ supposed strength of throwing to tight ends could be revealed to simply be a result of having an All-Pro tight end to throw to ten times a game in Philadelphia. Overall, Foles is leaving a group of proven/productive receivers and joining a group of young/inconsistent receivers.
One last personnel issue to consider is the strength of Foles’ offensive lines. According to Football Outsiders, the Eagles ranked 17thin pass protection last season and gave up 40 sacks. The Jaguars ranked 27thin pass protection and gave up 53 sacks. Jacksonville’s linemen couldn’t stay healthy as it seemed like backups of backups were starting late in the season. If rookie tackle Jawaan Taylor makes an impact and the starters stay healthy this season there shouldn’t be too much of a problem, but it is worth mentioning that Foles’ new offensive line is just one more variable that could hypothetically make 2019 harder on him and hinge his fantasy potential.
Foles Overall Outlook
Foles ranks 12thin career winning percentage (per Football Database) but 34thin career fantasy points per game among all active quarterbacks (minimum 10 starts). Foles can win games without having to put up lucrative passing numbers, which is exactly what the Jaguars are expecting of him. Based on his past fantasy performances and his new environment in Jacksonville, Foles doesn’t have much of a fantasy ceiling and should not be drafted in single quarterback leagues. He has value as a streaming option/cheap DFS play when he has favorable matchups against weak pass defenses, but for the most part, it’d be wise to look elsewhere when finding a fantasy quarterback.
Note: All fantasy numbers are in standard format (non-PPR). Unless otherwise noted, all statistics are via Pro Football Reference.
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REPORT: Jaguars to sign former WVU WR Marcus Simms