We are nearing the end of March my friends, and the 2018 NFL Draft is only a mere 27 days away. In celebration of being so close yet so far, I have decided to give you, the people, my first mock draft of the season. Picks 1-32, just for you. Let’s get it.
1(1) Cleveland Browns select- USC QB Sam Darnold
Although the Browns traded for Buffalo Bills QB Tyrod Taylor, the Browns pull the trigger on their hopeful franchise QB of the future in Sam Darnold. Darnold brings a lot of good (and bad) things to the table at QB for the Browns. He brings you relatively good size at QB standing at 6’3, 221lbs. If you want to see Darnold’s’ potential, just watch the 2016 Rose Bowl, when Darnold threw for 453 yards, five touchdowns to one interception. With the Browns having Tyrod Taylor, they can afford to possibly sit Darnold to start his career and take over control when ready.
1(2) New York Giants select- N.C State DE Bradley Chubb
The Giants recently traded DE Jason Pierre-Paul to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, suddenly created a hole at the edge spot for them defensively. How do you fix that? You pick the best edge rusher in the draft in Bradley Chubb with the second overall pick. Chubb might be one of the best edge rushers to come out of college in the last few seasons. His ability to use moves and bend around offensive tackles in college was phenomenal. The Giants get a franchise defensive end on their defensive line.
1(3) New York Jets (via IND) select- UCLA QB Josh Rosen
Don’t let the signings of Josh McCown and Teddy Bridgewater throw you off. The Jets need a QB and after missing out on the Kirk Cousins sweepstakes this past free agency, they nab the most pro-ready QB in the draft in Josh Rosen. Josh Rosen will walk into New York (Jersey really) and by week one of the 2018 NFL season, will be the starter for years to come. Coming in at 6’4 226 lbs, Rosen gives you near perfect QB size, topped with his 9 7/8 hands, The Jets are gifted an excellent sized, pro-ready QB to try and lead them back to the playoffs.
1(4) Cleveland Browns select- Alabama DB Minkah Fitzpatrick
Saquon Barkley is still on the board here at four, however, I don’t think the Browns pull the trigger after singing former 49ers, RB Carlos Hyde. Now I don’t think by any means that the Browns don’t select a running back early in this draft. They own the first and third picks at the beginning of the second round and I do believe there will be very good talent at the running back position there for the Browns. Instead, the Browns select one of the most versatile defensive backs in the draft in Minkah Fitzpatrick. With Fitzpatrick, you have the option of putting him at cornerback or safety and get a good day one starter.
1(5) *TRADE* Buffalo Bills (via DEN) select- Wyoming QB Josh Allen
Early in the offseason, the Buffalo Bills traded up from 21 to 12 thanks to a trade sending LT Cordy Glenn to the Cincinnati Bengals in exchange for the 12th overall pick. That was the first step in their plan to get the QB of their future. On draft day they pull the trigger and move from 12th all the way to top five at number five with Denver. With the fifth overall pick, the Bills select their signal-caller of the future in QB Josh Allen. Allen has a remarkably strong arm, with a velocity of 62 MPH, putting him in the 100th percentile for ball velocity. He also has great hand size at 10 1/8 and stature, standing at 6’5, 237 lbs. The Bills are banking on a very high ceiling and very low floor for Allen and I think he pans out well for the Bills.
1(6) Indianapolis Colts (via NYJ) select- Penn State RB Saquon Barkley
The Colts are banking on either Andrew Luck or Jacoby Brissett to lead them at QB this offseason, preferably the former. With this in mind, they take arguably the best offensive prospect in the draft in Saquon Barkley. Barkley is an immediate upgrade at the running back position for the Colts with the departure of veteran Frank Gore. Barkley joins second-year RB Marlon Mack in what could be a good 1-2 punch for Indy.
1(7) Tampa Bay Buccaneers select- Notre Dame OG Quenton Nelson
The Buccaneers have several needs that need to be addressed in this draft. They were able to scratch one off early in the trade for Jason Pierre-Paul. However, Bucs starting LG Evan Smith is getting older, and when the best guard in the draft falls to your lap, you take him, especially when you’re trying to run the ball and keep franchise QB Jameis Winston off his back. Nelson gives TB a mauler in a guard and wants to “Take away opposing players will to play the game.”
1(8) Chicago Bears select- Ohio State CB Denzel Ward
The Bears matched an offer sheet from the Green Bay Packers on CB Kyle Fuller, keeping him in Chicago for years to come. The Bears have completely overhauled their offense in the past two seasons, drafting QB Mitchell Trubisky, and signing WRs Allen Robinson and Taylor Gabriel as well at TE Trey Burton, on top of WR Cameron Meredith. The Bears now focus on what made them dominant in the 80’s, the defense. They add a playmaking CB in Denzel Ward who will always be making a play on the ball and forcing turnovers.
1(9) San Fransisco 49ers select- Boston College EDGE Harold Landry
Some people will likely look at this pick with a confused face. However, the 49ers were 26th in the league last year in sacks, a number they want to improve on greatly. Adding Harold Landry to the edge would be an immediate upgrade on a DL filled with former first-round picks, ready to dominate.
1(10) Oakland Raiders select- Georgia LB Roquan Smith
Arguably the best LB prospect in the draft and is the first taken off the board. Roquan Smith plays mean and fits right in with the Raiders and gives Jon Gruden his franchise MLB.
1(11) Miami Dolphins select- Oklahoma QB Baker Mayfield
I have been formulating a plan from afar to rebuild the Miami Dolphins. They already did my first step in moving on from DT Ndamukong Suh. The next step is finding and replacing QB Ryan Tannehill. Tannehill has been average-good his whole career but Baker Mayfield can come in and be great, as he’s my second best QB prospect in this draft. His will and ability to make plays with his legs and arm give him all the tools to win, something he’s accustom to doing. He lacks size but that hasn’t stopped yet and I don’t see it stopping anytime soon.
1(12) Denver Broncos (via BUF) select- Texas OT/OG Connor Williams
The Broncos signed Case Keenum in free agency, and I believe he is good enough to play at a high level for the Broncos after leading the Vikings to the NFC championship game. The Broncos trade back and stockpile draft capital and continue to fortify the OL. The Broncos likely gain 2-3 more picks on day two of the draft to continue to fill needed holes on both sides of the ball.
1(13) Washington Redskins select- Michigan DT Maurice Hurst
The Redskins started off the offseason with a blockbuster trade sending CB Kendall Fuller to the Chiefs in return for QB Alex Smith and then signed him long term. The Redskins address the other side of the ball and target the DL and pick the best interior defensive linemen in the draft in Maurice Hurst. Hurst however, sat out the combine with a heart issue, but it isn’t believed to be long term.
1(14) Green Bay Packers select- Iowa CB Joshua Jackson
The Packers need help in the secondary, and after losing out on Kyle Fuller, they go CB early in the draft and nab a really good corner in Joshua Jackson. Although Jackson doesn’t have a lot of starting tape to look at, the tape he does have, he produced. In 14 career starts, he has 27 passes defensed and eight interceptions. He excels in playing the ball with his long arms and makes a play on the ball on 25.7% of his targets.
1(15) Arizona Cardinals select- Louisville QB Lamar Jackson
This offseason, the Cardinals signed the often injured QB Sam Bradford. This move I believe is more of a placeholder than a long-term fix for the Cardinals. The Cardinals take a chance on a dynamic quarterback in Lamar Jackson, who might have the ability to sit and grow if Bradford can stay healthy. Jackson and running back David Johnson could wreak havoc on opposing defenses for years to come.
1(16) Baltimore Ravens select- Maryland WR D.J Moore
The Ravens have had terrible luck in picking receivers in recent years. WR Breshad Perriman has been a non-factor for the Ravens and the carousel of WRs for QB Joe Flacco has been frustrating. The Ravens hopefully have their guy who has great upside but definitely has the speed to stretch the field vertically. The Ravens recently signed former Raiders WR Michael Crabtree, so to pair him with a local talent in Moore could really bolster this Ravens passing attack. Moore is viewed by many as the top WR prospect in this draft. The Ravens value guys who can speed upfield and Moore fits that bill perfectly.
1(17) Los Angeles Chargers select- Notre Dame OT Mike McGlinchey
The Chargers were hit with the injury bug early last season with now second-year RG Forrest Lamp, tearing his ACL early into summer practices for the Chargers. The Chargers look to upgrade at tackle over Russell Okung and Joe Barksdale by adding a top tackle talent in McGlinchey to the offensive line. The Chargers would enter the season with a young and promising OL including players like Dan Feeney, Mike McGlinchey, and Forrest Lamp.
1(18) Seattle Seahawks select- UTEP OG Will Hernandez
The Seahawks offensive line was abysmal last year. The OL should be their #1 focus at 18, regardless of who falls. Their porous lineup front resulted in an ineffective run game for the Seahawks, as well as QB Rusell Wilson scrambling more than he should all season long. Hernandez bullies whoever is in front of him and that type of mentality and production is just what the doctor ordered for the Seahawks.
1(19) Dallas Cowboys select- Florida DT Taven Bryan
Cowboys Defensive Coordinator Rod Marinelli was all over Bryan at Florida’s pro day. The Cowboys need all the help they can get on the interior defensive line and to get help for Demarcus Lawrence should be the Cowboys top goal. Bryan has the best first step for defensive linemen in this draft and should make an immediate impact in the pros.
1(20) Detroit Lions select- LSU RB Derrius Guice
The Lions haven’t had a running back rush for over 100 yards since 2013 when Reggie Bush last did it. That is a very long time and quite frankly embarrassing streak to have. Guice gives you a great combo of catching, agility, and explosiveness to compete in the NFL. The league is changing and pass-catching running backs are becoming essential to a successful NFL offense and it wouldn’t surprise me if Guice broke the streak in week one of the 2018 NFL season.
1(21) Cincinnati Bengals (via BUF) select- Virginia Tech LB Tremaine Edmunds
The Bengals get a young, speedy linebacker to add to their defense. Edmunds, only 19 years old, would be 23 or 24 when going into his second contract, which is insane to think about. One drawback to Edmunds is his lack of film and experience at the collegiate level but ceiling wise, the potential is all there.
1(22) Buffalo Bills select- Texas A&M WR Christian Kirk
The Bills trade up early in the first round and get their franchise QB. Now they get a franchise target for their QB in Christian Kirk. Kirk lacks size but makes up for it with great route running, and the ability to get open in the NFL is a great ability to have. Bills fans should be excited about the future with Allen and Kirk at the helm of the offense.
1(23) Los Angeles Rams select- Boise State LB Leighton Vander Esch
The Rams have been very busy this offseason, trading for CB Marcus Peters and Aqib Talib as well as trading away LBs Alec Ogletree and Robert Quinn. Vander Esch gives the Rams a big linebacker inside standing tall at 6’4 and 256 lbs. They continue to overhaul the defense with this pick to compliment a strong offense led by QB Jared Goff and RB Todd Gurley II.
1(24) Carolina Panthers select- Alabama WR Calvin Ridley
The Panthers traded away WR Kelvin Benjamin last season in an attempt to churn the passing attack. The emergence of Devin Funchess was pleasing for Panthers fans, and the signing of Torrey Smith shouldn’t go unnoticed. However, the Panthers still need help and depth at WR and Ridley is the perfect combination of talent and upside to go to the Panthers and maybe not have to be the #1 guy right away.
1(25) Tennessee Titans select- UTSA DE Marcus Davenport
The Titans upgrade the pass rush in selecting a guy with a lot of upside in Marcus Davenport. Davenport looked great during Senior Bowl week and had been mocked as high as seven in some mock drafts. However, he takes a tumble on draft day and winds up in the AFC South on the Tennesee Titans.
1(26) Atlanta Falcons select- Washington DT Vita Vea
The Falcons continue to bolster the defense. Vita Vea was unblockable at times for Washington and pairing him with Takarrist McKinley and Jarrett Grady could be deadly for a Falcons defense that already has a strong offense and strong secondary. Vea could be a piece that puts the Falcons back on track to take another stab at the Superbowl.
1(27) New Orleans Saints select- Georgia OG Isaiah Wynn
The Saints and the NFL were set on fire by rookie sensation Alvin Kamara. Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram were the perfect 1-2 punch last year, and the best way to make a running attack better is fortifying the line they have to run behind. Rookie RT Ryan Ramczyk was sensational last year, and the Saints look to nab another top OL talent to bolster the line. Wynn is a top three guard in this draft and to snag him at 27 is a steal for the Saints.
1(28) Pittsburgh Steelers select- Georgia RB Sony Michel
A stunner in a pick here as the Steelers embrace an inevitable future with Le’Veon Bell. Sony Michel offers a nearly identical skill set to what Bell does and if Bell leaves, could allow the Steelers to seamlessly transition at the running back position.
1(29) Jacksonville Jaguars select- Florida State S Derwin James
The Jaguars have the luxury of picking the best available player here in reuniting former Florida State stars Derwin James, Jalen Ramsey, and Telvin Smith. Drafting James would likely mean the writing is on the wall for FS Tashaun Gipson, who has minimal dead cap remaining on his contract. The Jaguars would be gaining a top 3 safety in the draft and another gritty, playmaking defensive back to an already historically good pass defense. Another home run pick for Caldwell & Co. here at 29.
1(30) Minnesota Vikings select- South Dakota State TE Dallas Goedert
Dallas Goedert would be the first tight end taken off the board and Minnesota is getting a good one. Although missing the Senior Bowl and the combine with a hamstring injury, Goedert has often been compared to the likes of Rob Gronkowski and Travis Kelce. The Vikings already have a great tight end in Kyle Rudolph but adding Goedert could be lethal for an offense with star QB Kirk Cousins now at the helm and the return of RB Dalvin Cook. The Vikings could look to have the best offense and defense in the NFL next season.
1(31) New England Patriots select- Louisville CB Jaire Alexander
Former NE cornerback and Superbowl hero Malcolm Butler signed a five year $61.2 million contract with the Tennesee Titans, reuniting him with former Patriots CB Logan Ryan. With Butler leaving, the Patriots are left with a gaping hole in the secondary. The depth behind Stephon Gilmore is bleak and the Patriots address this need early by getting the most pro-ready cornerback in this class. Jaire Alexander gives you everything you could need in a cornerback; Size, instincts, and stats are all things you get when you draft Jaire Alexander. Having to go against QB Lamar Jackson in practice every day can also have its advantages.
1(32) Philadelphia Eagles select- SMU WR Courtland Sutton
The defending Superbowl champions have an interesting dilemma at quarterback, however, the best way to help any quarterback is to give him as many weapons as possible, and the Eagles do just that. Nelson Agholor was hot and cold this past season, and Alshon Jeffrey was good. The Eagles decide to pull the trigger on a WR who has size (6’3 218 lbs) and agility (10.68 agility score, 97th percentile) and the ability to go up for catches but also stretch the field with his speed and agility. Whether it be Wentz or Foles, the Eagles get a stud for the wide receiver group.
So what did you think? Did you love your teams pick? Or did you hate it? Give me your feedback and questions on twitter @MistoChristopho! Follow @LockedonJaguars on Twitter for daily updates and listen to us on Itunes, Spotify, Stitcher, Google Play Store and more!
2019 Jaguars NFL Draft Profile: Missouri QB Drew Lock
While things are certainly “Haskins or Bust” in Jacksonville after Ohio State quarterback Dwayne Haskins declared for the 2019 NFL Draft on Monday, Jaguars fans need to keep their minds open to the case in which the Jaguars can’t find a way to land the Heisman-contending gunslinger as their franchise quarterback.
Therefore, Locked On Jaguars has your fourth 2019 NFL Draft quarterback scouting report here. We’ve already covered Haskins, West Virginia’s Will Grier, and Duke’s Daniel Jones (as well as Oregon’s Justin Herbert, but he has announced he will return to school in 2019).
Let’s take a look at Missouri quarterback Drew Lock.
Lock, a 22 year old senior prospect who will be participating in the Senior Bowl in a couple of weeks, comes from a spread-out offensive system with almost four years (46 games) of starting experience. According to his profile on Missouri’s football website, Lock is the 9th SEC quarterback to ever have over 10,000 career passing yards, finishing his Tigers career with a stat-line of 883/1553 (56.9%), 12193 yards, 99 touchdowns and 39 interceptions. He also added 437 yards on 202 carries and nine rushing touchdowns.
The 6-4, 225 lb. quarterback stands out to me as a project quarterback with a ton of upside so long as he can nail down the mental side of the game, in terms of decision making, consistency, and NFL schematics. Let’s get to the film to see what Lock has to offer, and what he must improve on.
Natural throwing ability
Simply put: Drew Lock was put on this Earth to throw a football.
Lock manuevers pressure off the edge and from the B-gap blitzing linebacker and steps into a gorgeous, 42 air-yard throw to the middle of the field, hitting his receiver perfectly in stride and displaying necessary pocket comfort in order to score this touchdown.
And the best part about it is he makes the throw look so effortless. He never even set his feet, yet was able to generate power off of his front-step into the ball and deliver an absolute beauty.
Lock reads the entirety of the field from right to left and threads this ball with a needle. As soon as he gets his eyes on the target he launches this pass a whopping 57 air yards and about as in stride for a throw that deep as it can get.
When Lock is clean of pressure and can read his options with confidence, he can make almost any throw on the field. Especially deep balls, as he possesses a cannon of an arm and the necessary touch to put the ball where it needs to be.
Without ever setting his feet due to a pocket slide from pressure, Lock makes a cross-body toss to the back corner of the endzone in a window between two defenders for a score. While that combination isn’t usually recommended, natural throwing talents such as Lock are capable of making high-difficulty throws like this one.
The touch, loft, and placement on this sideline ball into double coverage is bonkers, and honestly one of the best throws I’ve seen while watching the 2019 QB class. On the previous drive, Lock tried this throw and it was intercepted (which will be broken down later in this piece), so going right back to it against a defense as talented as Alabama’s on back-to-back drives, especially on 3rd and long, is risky. But Lock puts this ball in the most perfect spot he could, with the outside cornerback getting back to the ball and an enclosing safety coming down to play the ball.
Clean pocket, Lock scans left to right and once again delivers a polished ball from a squeaky-clean release in between a tight man coverage cornerback and an enclosing safety. Lock puts this ball low and away through the tight window where the receiver elongates his body to bring in a perfectly led ball, no pause from his stride whatsoever. An absolute dime.
I have legitimate concerns with Lock reading defenses, which I’ll break down later on. But this play gives hope that he can mature in that aspect with the correct grooming. In a clean pocket, Lock reads post-snap that the two highlighted defenders are squaring up underneath right before the receiver breaks into the inside of his route. Lock diagnoses that and lets this ball rip to the middle of the field as the safety has taken on coverage on top. Lock needs to show this maturity much more often, but this is a smart football play and a pretty ball.
This is a perfect mix of velocity, accuracy, and clutch – all in this one tight window throw. Not much more explanation needed.
Drew Lock’s mechanics are interesting to breakdown.
When it comes to Lock’s upper-body mechanics: They’re great. His throwing motion and release are quick, compact, and precise. His shoulders are square, his forearm never drops below elbow-level which helps maintain his release speed, and his wrist-flick is super swift which gives his passes a truly beautiful spiral.
Here are a couple more examples of his arm mechanics to both the short and long field:
Even on this sidearm throw on a quick release post-pull on an RPO, Lock maintains a compact motion where he keeps his forearm even and above his elbow. Considering he sidearms this to keep the ball away from the nickel defender, the difficulty to maintain sound throwing mechanics here is high, despite the short route.
A quick release is the difference between this sideline adjustment catch for a 1st down and a batted pass and potential turnover on a long 3rd down here. Right out of the pull Lock gets this ball out with a lengthy enclosing blitzer in his face. The ability to release this so cleanly and quickly against the pressure, much less the touch and placement of the throw to the sideline itself, is top notch.
The release of this pass comes with the ball at helmet level, and it comes out incredibly smoothly and results in a bread-basket ball, in stride, down the sideline.
Now, with all of these pretty passes and a display of clean upper-body mechanics, I’m sure you have starteed to sell yourself on Drew Lock. But now, it’s time to flip the switch and understand what Lock doesn’t do well.
While his throwing motion and release are superb, Lock’s footwork is often a mess. Especially when there’s even a hint of pressure coming his way, he will begin to cross his feet over and sporadically move them around.
Pressure coming, and Lock sees no opening – even his RB checkdown to his right. Rather than trying to evade or at worst stepping up and ducking into a sack for minimal gain with pressure being obvious, Lock wants to play hero-ball and his poor, nervous footwork sets in. He starts backpedaling with no plan and ends up getting contacted 14 yards behind the line of scrimmage on a 3rd down, down two scores. What makes it worse? Lock panics and kind of hands the ball away before taking a sack, which counts as a fumble, that Alabama recovers in their own redzone. This is a serious red-flag type of play, from any quarterback – even the smartest of QBs.
Yes, this is a free play as Oklahoma State has 12 men on the field, but free plays can be utilized and this one provided touchdown-scoring ability. Right out of the RPO-pull, Lock begins to windup and target his opening primary read in the endzone. But Lock’s feet are totally uneven with his body and he throws the ball as he finally sets his feet. His weight never evens out enough to let this go cleanly and rather trusts his arm to make this throw way too much. This ends up being a mistake – Lock overthrows this ball by a good amount, and with too much velocity for his receiver to get underneath it. If Lock evens out his base and steps into what should be an easy throw here, Missouri declines the 12 men penalty because they instead put six points on the board.
This is a designed-RB screen. Lock knows that the left side is going to open up, especially considering Georgia blitzes the middle of the line. But Lock hops around with his feet and squares his body – ten toes aimed – at his target and can’t get the ball over the oncoming pressure. There was no way Lock could put the touch and depth he needed on this ball with his sporadic feet failing to create a decent base to enable getting air under this throw. This was one of multiple batted passes at the line of scrimmage that Lock had against Georgia.
Decision making and mental processing
This is where Lock struggles the most. Three plays above where Lock backpedals into a strip sack vs. Alabama applies to this section as well.
The underneath cross opens up and Lock stares it down like a hawk, but doesn’t strike despite clear pressure coming his way. He panics and begins to roll rightonly to realize a roll will turn into a sack. So, Lock plants his back foot and YOLO’s this ball back to the now-covered-but-was-previously-open cross route and sails the receiver. And Lock’s lucky the intermediate middle of the field didn’t have a route combo or else a defender most likely is in the area of the ball and intercepts it. Lock can’t abandon that wide-open read, and then panic and try to force it later on with pressure. That will lead to deadly mistakes.
Lock begins to side-step as a he diagnoses pressure coming off the right edge, but how doesn’t he realize that pressure isn’t slowing down? He holds onto the ball without a plan with a defensive end chasing his tail and when he finally begin his windup, his arm is already getting chopped at which forces a strip-sack. While the bottom slot receiver gets covered up quickly, there’s an opportunity with him in the short field to, at absolute worst, target this pass low and away in order to prevent a sack, or as what happened here, a turnover-worthy play.
Another glimpse at the pauses Lock has mentally. Double verticals to his left side, the safety is clearly opening his hips (this is important!) to the sideline before Lock even winds this pass up, and that opens up the middle of the field in a favorable speed matchup for the slot. If Lock sees that, this becomes a gimme-touchdown with Lock’s natural arm talent. He can make that deep throw assuming he reads what’s happening… he just doesn’t. A rangy NFL free safety probably gets up and intercepts this sideline ball. But as long as that safety dedicates his hips to that sideline vertical, the slot should almost always be open unless he’s against a speedster of a nickel cornerback. That isn’t the case here, Lock NEEDS to see that.
Lock seemingly doesn’t trust his protection as he abandons the strong-side here and targets a tightly-covered sideline route one-on-one. In doing so, Lock misses an easy chance to step up to the left and target the flats, but instead he way underthrows the sideline ball and it gets intercepted. Lock has to see pre-snap that the boundary corners are pressing but the top-left slot receiver has a flats advantage with the nickel playing off-man. Especially against competition such as Alabama’s defense, diagnosing and taking advantage of what’s being given is an area of concern for Lock and that’s evident here.
As soon as his throwing arm was hit and he had to tuck the ball with his opposite arm, Lock needed to understand he needed to play safe with the ball. Tuck it, take the sack, try to run when you break the contact, anything but throw it…
And yet, as soon as he breaks contact he flips the ball back into his throwing hand and just let’s the ball go. Lock had no time while taking hits to read if any receiver, much less the receiver in sideline traffic, to justify making this throw, but he does. Especially being down two scores, Lock has to be sharper than to make this type of decision. These types of decisions can lose teams ball games if luck doesn’t go their way.
Pros and Cons
- Cannon arm
- Natural upper-body mechanics, clean and compact throwing motion
- 40 games of starting experience
- SEC schedule, regularly played vs. top defenses
- Completion % increased by 3-5% every year
- Mobile in and out of pocket
- Frame is excellent at 6-4, 225
- Touch throws are polished when unpressured
- Lower body mechanics are inconsistent
- Feet are sporadic vs. pressure, base can be inconsistent
- Averages nearly a turnover a game in career (47 interceptions/fumbles in 50 games)
- Simplified scheme hasn’t developed mental processing
- Misses easy reads under pressure
- Pre-snap reads are minimal on tape
Drew Lock is that yearly quarterback that “has all the tools”, but needs work developing them.
Now, that isn’t necessarily a criticism, rather it’s a warning. I believe Lock has all the potential in the world to be an upper-level NFL starting quarterback if he enters a system that develops him at his own pace – think like Patrick Mahomes under Andy Reid in Kansas City. If Lock enters a system where he isn’t rushed into playing time and rather receives proper training to advance his mental game, it’s hard to imagine that he couldn’t find success with the natural physical talent he possesses.
However, the Jacksonville Jaguars are in a time-crunch where they must find a quarterback they can rely on out of the gate and that can win games now. Drew Lock is far from that. He’s a project. And the Jaguars are in no position to try to develop a project quarterback at this time.
Now, a team like the Denver Broncos makes a ton of sense, with a bridge quarterback in house for another season, some roster overhauling to do, and a new head coach entering the fold. If Lock falls out of the first round, Tampa Bay also makes a ton of sense under new head coach Bruce Arians, as Jameis Winston is entering his make-or-break year to prove he can be a starting quarterback in the NFL.
Anywhere Lock can sit and learn the mental aspects of the professional game would be optimal for his future success. Jacksonville isn’t that place.
Jaguars will need to trade up in the NFL Draft for a QB, but with who?
The Jacksonville Jaguars, who are in desperate need of a franchise quarterback, are unfortunately not in an ideal scenario to get one. At least, not without some help.
There appears to be only one quarterback worth taking in the top 10 as thing stand, that being Ohio State quarterback Dwayne Haskins, who we broke down in a scouting report here. And considering the Jaguars have live-scouted OSU five times this year, according to a mix of sources and reports, there appears to be clear interest in the quarterback from this quarterback-needy team.
If they truly do value Haskins as their guy, they need to do whatever it takes to get him. The Jaguars will own the 7th pick in the NFL Draft, after the QB-needy New York Giants picking 6th. On top of that, the Oakland Raiders, who pick 4th, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who pick 5th, could be dark-horse teams to select a QB, and teams such as the Miami Dolphins (13th pick) and the Washington Redskins (15th pick) may be in the running to trade up for their guy as well.
The bottom line is, there are teams who definitely need a quarterback, as well as some who could surprise us and take one, in this thin QB class. Therefore, if the Jaguars want to land their guy, they’re going to need to make a move up the board to ensure they get him. At minimum, they need to jump the New York Giants.
Who could the Jaguars trade up with to get their guy? Let’s look at all of their options, and breakdown how expensive it would be to trade up with each team and where the other team’s needs are.
Note: All trades are meant to be as realistic as possible, with the help of Calculator Soup’s NFL Draft Pick Trade Calculator. Percentage equals gain or loss of value for the team Jacksonville would trade with.
1. Arizona Cardinals
Needs: OL, iDL, DB, WR
Would they trade out?: Probably not, unless the offer is too good to pass up.
What it would likely take to trade with Jacksonville: 7th overall, 2019 2nd, 2019 3rd (from LAR) 2020 1st = +4.8% gain
The Cardinals are deprived of talent at a lot of different positions across their roster – other than three of the most important posotions in football that is. Last year they landed their franchise QB in Josh Rosen, pass rusher Chandler Jones has accumulated 41 sacks in three years with the team, and Patrick Peterson is an eight-time Pro Bowler and three-time first-team All-Pro cornerback at the age of 28.
But even with those three key positions nailed down, they could use a lot of help. The offensive line is a mess, they could use interior presence to their defensive line to stop the run and pair with Jones to create a terrorizing pass-rush duo, and Peterson needs a running mate to create turnovers in the secondary.
Arizona is best suited to stick at No. 1 and take Alabama defensive tackle Quinnen Williams with the first pick. He’s been the most dominant interior defender in college football during the 2018 season and would give the Cardinals that deadly duo in the pass rush.
However, if they view offensive line as their biggest need, or entertain the idea of maximizing value given how deep of a defensive class this is, perhaps they could look to trade out, gain a ton of picks, and take either Alabama offensive tackle Jonah Williams or the best available defender.
The Jaguars 7th overall pick is a good spot for one or the other, and Jacksonville would have to part with a ton of assets to make it happen, because Arizona has the leverage to shoot the price up. If the Jaguars are willing to risk that to ensure the QB, Arizona might bite.
2. San Francisco 49ers
Needs: EDGE, DB, OL, WR
Would they trade out?: Less likely than Arizona, unless Arizona drafts Nick Bosa.
What it would take to trade with Jacksonville: 7th overall, 2019 2nd, 2020 1st, 2020 4th = +3.2 gain
The 49ers could use edge pass rushing help more than anyone in this year’s draft, and will have at least one if not two fantastic defensive end prospects fall into their laps at No. 2 in Ohio State’s Nick Bosa and Kentucky’s Josh Allen.
However, much like Arizona, there’s got to be a price that will catch the 49ers’ attention, even though they could be best suited to take a superior prospect at a huge position of need with their current draft slot. At 7th overall, the 49ers could have prospects such as Florida State DE Brian Burns, Florida DE Jachai Polite, Clemson DE Clelin Ferrell, Alabama safety Deionte Thompson, LSU CB Greedy Williams, and so on, available to them.
One thing that could make a 49ers trade possible, at least more so than it is right now, is if Arizona surprises everyone and selects Bosa first overall. While he’s widely considered the best prospect in this class, defensive end isn’t nearly as much a need to the Cardinals as other positions. While Josh Allen is a fantastic prospect, there is a bit of a drop off between the two.
It will be up to San Francisco, like Arizona, if gaining more valuable picks, both immediately and in the future, is worth losing out on the best prospects in the draft at their biggest position of need. Much like Arizona, it probably isn’t likely, but everyone has a price, and Jacksonville is in a desperate situation and could offer the price the 49ers would demand.
3. New York Jets
Needs: EDGE, OL, WR, RB
Would they trade out?: Most likely out of the top 3 teams.
What it would take to trade with Jacksonville: 7th overall, 2019 2nd, 2019 3rd (from LAR), 2020 4th = +0.91%
Truthfully, Josh Allen fits the Jets’ 3-4 defensive scheme and personnel as things stand. Now, a new scheme could be on it’s way when New York hires their new head coach, but we will base this on the assumption that the new staff sticks with what this personnel group is assembled to play.
In that case, Josh Allen makes a ton of sense, and should be available at No. 3 for the Jets to select.
The Jets sent the Indianapolis Colts four second round picks between the 2018 and 2019 NFL Drafts’ in order to nab their franchise quarterback in Sam Darnold last year, and it would be shocking if they didn’t want to get some of that value back. Assuming they do, the Jets are a prime trade-up candidate for Jacksonville. With two third round picks this year, Jacksonville can let one go on top of swapping firsts, and tacking on their 2nd round pick and an early Day 3 pick in 2020 to get their pick.
This is the most likely trade scenario for Jacksonville, or any team, to move up for Haskins.
4. Oakland Raiders
Needs: EDGE, DB, WR, LB
Would they trade out?: 50/50 chance, depends on first three picks.
What would it take to trade with Jacksonville?: 7th overall, 2019 3rd, 2019 3rd (from LAR) = +3.83%
While it’s smartest for the Jaguars to try to trade into the top 3, far ahead of the Giants as well as ahead of dark-horse QB teams like Oakland or Tampa Bay, the Raiders would be the consolation call if the top 3 teams lock themselves onto certain prospects.
In that case, the Raiders would miss out on the two star EDGE prospects of the class, however there are still plenty of defensive ends worth taking throughout the top 10, and we all know Jon Gruden loves getting as many assets that he can after trading Amari Cooper and Khalil Mack for a combined three first round picks and more.
Jacksonville can give Gruden an extra two third round picks this year, which would have Oakland selecting a whopping seven times in the first three rounds. The extra thirds would make up for the Raiders’ lack of a second round pick, and meanwhile they’d still land a premier edge defender at 7th overall.
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Needs: DB, OL, EDGE
Would they trade out?: Probably
What would it take to trade with Jacksonville?: 7th overall, 2019 3rd = +2.65%
Much like the above picks, the Buccaneers could do with landing an elite defender, either at EDGE rusher out of whoever remains out of the top-10 worthy guys, or a defensive back such as CB Greedy Williams or safety Deionte Thompson. However, considering Jacksonville is only two picks back, Tampa Bay wouldn’t lose much talent-wise in moving back, whereas they could receive an early third rounder this year and gain value.
Therefore, Jacksonville gives up only one of their two third round picks, and manage to hop in front of the Giants and land their quarterback.
Which of these trade options would you prefer the Jaguars to make? Or would you rather them sit back and take a QB at 7th overall? Or perhaps another position? Let us know in the comments.
Jaguars locked in to the 7th pick in the 2019 NFL Draft
Finishing the season with a 5-11 record and some strength of schedule tiebreakers, the Jacksonville Jaguars will own the 7th overall pick in the 2019 NFL Draft.
According to Tankathon.com, the Jaguars will be one selection behind the QB-needy New York Giants, with Tampa Bay and Oakland as potential dark-horse candidates to want a quarterback as well.
The Jaguars are will select 38th in the second round, 69th and projected-94th (from LA Rams) in the third round, 103rd in the fourth round, 165th in the sixth round and 199th in the seventh round.
Jacksonville beating the Miami Dolphins in Week 16 ultimately hurt them. Had they lost that game, Jacksonville would probably be selecting 5th overall, as Oakland is currently losing to Kansas City by a score of 21-3 in the 3rd quarter as this article is being written.
So, the Jaguars will most likely have to trade up to get a new quarterback in the 2019 NFL Draft, and considering there only appears to be one worth taking that high in Ohio State’s Dwayne Haskins (should he declare), it’s going to be a difficult, and expensive, move to make.
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